Interpreting the Pandemic Economy Curve

Interpreting the Pandemic Economy Curve

Based on the framework, Luohan Academy built a Global Pandemic Economy Tracker (PET) using globally available datasets. We explain the definitions, data sources, and methods of indicators here. We use PET to follow the evolution of the pandemic economy across different world regions.

Interpreting the PET Curve

  • Horizontal axis – doubling days (DD) of confirmed cases is a proxy for epidemic growth; the larger the DD, the lower the rate of virus spread
  • Vertical axis – daily economic activities is estimated based on mobility
  • Dashed line – the vertical line at the location where DD is 17.5, which is the average DD at the onset of Recovery phase for those economies that are currently in the Recovery phase
  • The symbols – circle, square and triangle refer to the onset of Response, Trough and Recovery phase respectively
  • The durations– the first one near the square refers to the duration of Response phase (from point A to point B in Figure 2), the second one near the triangle refers to the duration of Response and Trough phase together (from point A to point C), the third one at the end of the line refers to the total duration of economic contraction (from point A to the end of the curve)
  • The death rates – under the third number of days is the number of deaths per million people (DPM) in each country, an important indicator on the severity of the epidemic.


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