Ricardo J. Caballero is the Ford International Professor of Economics and an NBER Research Associate. He was the Chairman of MIT's Economics Department (2008-2011). His research fields are macroeconomics and finance. In April 1998, Professor Caballero was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society and subsequently of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in April 2010.
Abstract
AI technology can generate speculative-growth equilibria. These are rational but fragile: elevated valuations support rapid capital accumulation, yet persist only as long as beliefs remain coordinated. Because AI capital is labor-like, it expands effective labor and dampens the normal decline in the marginal product of capital as the capital stock grows. The gains from this expansion accrue disproportionately to capitalists, whose saving rate rises with wealth, raising aggregate saving. Building on Caballero et al. (2006), I show that these features generate a funding feedback—rising capitalist wealth lowers the required return—that can produce multiple equilibria. With intermediate adjustment costs, elevated valuations are the mechanism that sustains a transition toward a high-capital equilibrium; a loss of confidence can precipitate a self-fulfilling crash and reversal.
If you would like to give a presentation in a future webinar, contact our Senior Economist Dr. Wen Chen (wen.chen@luohanacademy.com). For other inquiries, please contact: events@luohanacademy.com.
